Poll: Nearly Half of Calgary Chamber Members Would Leave Alberta If Province Separates from Canada
A new survey commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce reveals that 48% of its members are likely to relocate their businesses out of Alberta if the province votes to separate from Canada, signaling deep economic anxiety over the potential political shift.
Poll: Nearly Half of Calgary Chamber Members Would Leave Alberta If Province Separates from Canada
CALGARY — A stark warning has emerged from Alberta's business community as a recent poll indicates that nearly half of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce members are prepared to relocate their operations out of the province if Alberta votes to separate from Canada.
The survey, conducted by Probe Research between June 8 and June 22 among 137 Chamber members, paints a picture of significant economic instability driven by the prospect of separation. According to the findings, 48% of participants expressed they are either "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to move their businesses if the separation initiative progresses. In contrast, only 39% stated they are unlikely to do so, while 13% remain uncertain.
Business Expansion Slows Amid Separation Talk
The threat of separation is already impacting current business strategies. The data shows that 19% of respondents have slowed down their business expansion plans within Alberta, while 15% are actively seeking to relocate.
Almost two-thirds of respondents noted that discussions surrounding separatism are already adversely affecting their businesses. This sentiment is corroborated by a separate Chamber-commissioned survey, which found that 51% of Calgary respondents believe the current discourse is affecting the provincial economy, with 93% describing that impact as negative.
Economic Forecasts Worsen
The economic implications of a potential split are being analyzed by experts. Trevor Tombe, an economist at the University of Calgary, commissioned by the Chamber, estimated that one in three Albertan workers would face disruptions in trade with the rest of Canada and international markets.
Drawing parallels to the United Kingdom's split from the European Union, Tombe projects a 6% hit to Alberta's gross domestic product per capita and a reduction of 175,000 jobs if the province separates.
Public Sentiment and the October Referendum
Despite the economic alarms, a significant portion of the business community sees little upside in separation. Approximately 75% of respondents do not perceive any real advantages from breaking away from Canada. Furthermore, 91% of participants reported that they are closely monitoring the discussions regarding the upcoming referendum.
The poll arrives as Albertans prepare to vote on 10 referendum questions in October. One critical question will address whether the province should remain part of Canada or initiate a formal process for a separation referendum in the future.
Conclusion
The survey underscores a critical juncture for Alberta's economy. With nearly half of its key business leaders willing to leave the province in the event of separation, the potential political shift carries the risk of severe capital flight, reduced investment, and long-term economic contraction. As the October vote looms, the business community's stance remains a formidable variable in the province's political future.
Sources: Calgary Chamber of Commerce, Probe Research, University of Calgary (Trevor Tombe analysis)